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Ongoing Projects For further information see: http://www.ifsh.de/IFSH/profil/for_plaene.htm (Forschungsplan ZEUS, in German) Research Staff Piracy and Maritime Terrorism as a Challenge for Maritime Trade Security – Indicators, Perceptions and Options for Action This 33-month project (April 2010 to December 2012), which is being financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) to the tune of nearly one million Euros, aims to provide a forum in which representatives of politics, business and academia can exchange views and share knowledge on maritime trade security. Building on this, the project will examine and expand the concept of “Security Governance”. It will develop indicators for evaluating specific risk perceptions as well as mechanisms for joint risk analysis. It will also draw up a catalogue of non-military options that will enable a co-ordinated response. The project seeks to bring together academic risk analysis, technological security solutions, and legal and economic approaches with the goal of developing interdepartmental options for action that will enable the state to implement non-military measures to strengthen maritime trade security – now and in the future. more Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart, Dr. Patricia Schneider, Kerstin Petretto Justification with the same arguments? - Analysing arguments in favour of restricting human and civil rights under the pretext of combating terrorism in the USA, EU and Russia The project analyses the argumentation of different governmental actors in the USA, EU and Russia to restrict human and civil rights in the fight against terrorism. The aim is to identify potential convergence in rhetoric with regard to the legitimisation of “exceptional measures” in the fight against terrorism. The project starts from the assumption that such convergence is an evidence for the rise of a coalition of governmental 'norm challengers'. The project is funded by the DFG. more Researcher: Dr. Regina Heller, Dr. Martin Kahl, Dr. Daniela I. Pisoiu TERAS-INDEX - Terrorism and Radicalisation – Indicators for the Impact of External Factors The consortional project TERAS-INDEX (Terrorism and Radicalisation – Indicators for the Impact of External Factors) is financed by the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Research and aims to comparatively analyse the internal effects of foreign and security policy measures of European countries. The focus is on the question “Do domestic and international conflicts in the Muslim world and the foreign policy of Germany and five comparable Eurpean countries towards them have an impact on Jihadist, Islamist and vulnerable Milieus in Germany and the other European countries, and how can this impact be described in meaningful indicators?” Different methodological approaches will be applied, such as a comparative analysis of foreign and security policy possibly contributing to Islamist and Jihadist radicalisation in European countries, the elaboration of instruments for monitoring the feedback effects, the empirical identification of the radicalising effect in Jihadist, Islamist and vulnerable milieus, and a content analysis on the relevance of European countries' involvement in conflicts in the Muslim world in the radical narrative. The final aim of the project is to construct indicators, which will contribute to the early anticipation of waves of radicalisation waves and as such open windows of opportunity for early responses to this non-deterministic process. Researcher: Dr. Matenia Sirseloudi, Dr. Martin Kahl Analysis of Civil Security Systems in Europe (ANVIL) In the face of increasingly transnational risks the installation of effective, efficient and legitimate systems of civil security has attracted growing political attention. States create and use capacities to prevent risks, prepare for crises and disasters, protect societal values and infrastructures and react effectively and rapidly in the case of an emergency. In this context, the European Union plays a growing role in the coordination of national activities that vary considerably with regard to their structure, content, legal framework and practical implementation. However, the quality of different civil security systems and their legal, political and cultural determinants have not been subject to rigorous scholarly analysis so far. ANVIL conducts case studies on a sample of states and regional arrangements with special emphasis on the burden-sharing between public and private institutions. Moreover, the project develops indicators for the comparative assessment of the effectiveness, efficiency and legitimacy of civil security systems. The resulting recommendations for potential changes and adaptations will be disseminated to national and European stakeholders in the course of the project. The IFSH is responsible for an in-depth study on Germany and two desk studies on Austria and Switzerland. Moreover, the IFSH oversees the comparative assessment report on all national case studies. Researchers: Raphael Bossong, Hendrik Hegemann EUSECON. A New Agenda for European Security Economics EUSECON is a four-year research project that analyzes the causes, dynamics, and long-term effects of both human-induced insecurity threats and European security policies. The aim of the Economics of Security initiative is to understand the economic and social costs of terrorist attacks and anti-terror policies, as well as to use this knowledge to produce more effective and efficient security policies. The project is funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme and comprises a consortium of top economists and social scientists in Europe Researcher: Rafael Bossong, Dr. Regina Heller, Dr. Martin Kahl, Eric van Um Dictionary EUropean security policy The Dictionary EUropean Security Policy explains in short articles relevant and lesser known terms from the area of European security policy, based on a broader understanding of security. The central focus is on terms of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). Nearly 600 entries offer a targeted access to numerous aspects related to European security. They range from A, as in A 400M, to Z, as in Zyklenmodell der Konfliktprävention (cycles of conflict prevention). An extensive annex provides in-depth information via charts, diagrams and statistics (with Dr. Bernhard Rinke). Researcher: Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart, Dr. Bernhard Rinke The Afghanistan Challenge: Hard Realities and Strategic Choices After eight years of engagement by the international community in Afghanistan the time is ripe for taking stock. In Canada and Germany – which are main contributors to this endeavour – the mission is increasingly under dispute. 2009 has been considered a decisive year for the future development of this conflict-torn country and for NATO as a prime security provider. Against this background, the overall objective of the German-Canadian project is to take stock of Nato’s and the international community’s engagement in Afghanistan. Is this engagement a lost cause, as some opponents claim, or is it a long-term endeavour, the success of which is essential for Afghanistan, the region and NATO? This key question has been tackled by a international workshop. A monograph will to be published in 2009 (with Charles Pentland, QCIR). Researcher: Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart Security governance as challenge for coping with transnational conflicts The project deals with the part that the EU and other stakeholders play as international actors in the area of conflict prevention and crisis management. The starting point is that on the one side today’s conflicts are complex and need differentiated strategies in the international context and on the other side that the EU and the other actors have diverse but still to be connected institutional and material instruments for the prevention of conflicts and crisis management at their disposal. In this light, the goals, role and manner of working of the Union as post-modern crisis manager and its working with other stakeholders are to be examined. In this context the concept of “security governance” is to be determined in greater detail. Researcher: Dr. Hans-Georg Ehrhart Russian Foreign Policy Behaviour towards the West Re-visited The project aims at identifying the underlying motivations (drivers) that guide Russian foreign policy conduct vis-à-vis Western counterparts by using new explanatory approaches. Attempts to explain Russian foreign policy, particularly in its relations with the West, and the underlying logics that guide Russia's sometimes highly inconsistent and irrational behavior, have so far not proven very powerful. The project will identify theoretical voids and complementary approaches that are able to fill these voids. Researcher: Dr. Regina Heller The Europeanisation of the EU’s Russia policy The project aims to assess the EU’s potential to perform as a coherent foreign and security policy actor vis-à-vis Russia. ‘Europeanisation’ is defined here as the process of EU-internal coordination and harmonisation of national policies and in order to achieve collective European goals. The project starts from the observation that the positions within the EU towards Russia are manifold and at times contradictory. Rifts exist between ‘old’ and ‘new’ Member States and between large and small ones. Moreover, in many instances, the Member States have failed to comply with the imperative to coordinate their national foreign policies through the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This results in a situation where unilateral approaches and agreements in the EU’s Russia policy prevail (the energy sector being the most prominent) or single Member States abstain from common approaches vis-à-vis the EU’s Eastern neighbour. This state of affairs clearly weakens the Union as a unitary, credible and strong actor and fundamentally challenges the Union’s capacity to pursue its foreign policy and security goals. Researcher: Dr. Regina Heller The establishment, reform and disintegration of the security sector in the Palestinian Authority as a challenge for the European Union and its Middle East policy The EU's Middle East policy oscillates between state-building, the combat of terrorism and transatlantic cooperation. This general observation includes the contribution of the EU to the building of the Palestinian security sector that takes place under the conditions of occupation and resistance. In a critical appraisal, constructive and counter-productive elements of the EU's commitment to an important element of the Palestinian state project are being scrutinized. The study aims at contributing to the analysis of the EU's security governance and its intended and uninteded effects. It deals with the EU's activities in the Palestinian Authority within the realm of security and analyses the concept as well as its implementation. Three phases are being identified: first, from the beginning of the Oslo process until its break down in the 2. intifada (1993-2000), secondly, from the restart since the election of President Abbas until the disintegration of the pre-state Palestinian unity (2005-2007), thirdly, from the shift of the European efforts to the West Bank until the Gaza war (2007-2009). Due to tensions between state-building, the combat of terrorism and transatlantic cooperation and on account of contradictory goals and an anti-islamic hidden agenda, the intended reform of the security sector did not achieve the desired results. Researcher. Dr. Margret Johannsen Pre-radical subcultures, radicalisation and violence This pilot project is the preparatory stage for a research grant application on the topic of the role of pre-radical subcultures in the Islamist, left-wing and right-wing radicalisation processes. The theoretical approach of the project is interdisciplinary and draws on three areas of research: terrorism studies, criminology and social movements. It will take a developmental view on the radicalisation process, whereby involvement occurs incrementally, revolves around motivational variables rather than determining factors, and in interaction with the immediate and distant social environments. The project is funded by the University of Hamburg, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences. Researcher: Dr. Daniela I. Pisoiu Academic Network Southeastern Europe Goals of the project are mainly a deeper debate among young professional elites in Southeastern European states about topics relevant to peace policy, the encouragement of scientific and academic exchange, the development of a sustainable cooperation among young scholars and students in the region or the diaspora as well as between academic partner institutions in Southeastern Europe, the IFSH and the German institutions for peace research cooperating in the Cooperation Network Peace Research and Security Policy (Kooperationsverbund Friedensforschung und Sicherheitspolitik). For programs and outcomes see www.akademischesnetzwerk-soe.net. The German Academic Exchange Service supports the project from its funds for the special program “Stability Pact Southeastern Europe”. Researcher: Dr. Michael Brzoska, Dr. Patricia Schneider, Naida Mehmedbegovic Dissertations The internationalization of terrorist violence – reasons and prerequisites The doctoral dissertation deals with the reasons for the internationalization of terroristic violence. This project researches which prerequisites induce terrorist organizations to export terroristic violence from the originating country of the conflict into other countries, resp. which determining factors cause a shift in terroristic aims to citizens of former uninvolved states. On a related note the question why only one out of eight terrorist incidents is a so called international terrorist incident – depending on the definition – is going to be examined in this exploration. Extraordinary attention should be payed to the role of the media, anti-terror measures and the asymmetry between the state and the terrorist organization. Dissertation Dennis Bangert Governing Counterterrorism: The Fight Against Transnational Terrorism and the Role of International Institutions The terrorist attacks of New York, Madrid, and London have highlighted the need for international cooperation in the fight against transnational terrorism and led to the emergence of a multifaceted and multilevel structure of cooperation in the issue area. Research has either focused on states and their interests and perceptions or has been restricted to the strategies and procedures of international institutions. Yet international relations scholarship has largely neglected the role of international institutions as actors within the cooperation process. Moreover, there is a lack of theoretically underpinned and systematic analysis. The dissertation project investigates how and in how far international institutions have facilitated, implemented, and sustained interstate cooperation in the fight against transnational terrorism. The study is based on a model drawing on different strands of international relations theory and their assumptions about the role of international institutions. The European Union and the United Nations will serve as case studies. Dissertation Hendrik Hegemann International administration in Kosova and its way to peace When the decision was made to put Kosovo under international administration, the main idea was to improve the conditions for a peaceful solution of the conflict. In 1999 the major powers could not agree on a solution but rather froze the conflict in the hope that over time it would become easier to solve. The dissertation will investigate on several levels whether or not the conflict has become more or less “ripe” for solution since 1999. The situation at the Rambouillet Conference 1999, and immediately following, will be compared with the situation in 2007. In addition, the actions and activities of the international actors will be analyzed with respect to the question whether these helped or hindered the improvement of the situation. Theoretical approaches to be applied in the dissertation include conflict transformation, conflict resolution and “ripeness” of conflicts for solution. Dissertation Afrim Hoti Policy versus Practice: The European Union and Civil-Military Cooperation and Coordination. An Analysis of the EU Crisis Management Engagement in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the framework of the European Security and Defence Policy According to its own discourse, the EU follows a comprehensive security approach to crisis management that aims at applying the different civil and military instruments in a coherent and effective way. Here, Civil-Military Coordination (CMCO) and Civil-Military Cooperation (CIMIC) play an important role, when it comes to planning and implementing complex crisis management operations. The project, which is funded by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, focuses on the EU Crisis Management in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It examines the structures and processes of CMCO and CIMIC and analyses how the comprehensive security approach has been institutionally translated into practice. The empirical research focuses on the two military and two civil EU operations in the DRC in the framework of the European Security and Defence Policy as well as on the European Community engagement. Dissertation Janina Johannsen A comparative assessment of police missions in the European Security and Defence Policy (Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Palestinian territories). Is there a European police reform in the making? The European Union’s crisis management policy forms the background for decision-making regarding the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP): ESDP police missions in particular are the spearhead of its civilian component. Despite strategic and tactical underpinnings for police reform, a systematic and comparative assessment of the ESDP police missions’ implementation and of their achievements is still missing. This brings into question the existence of a “EU police reform”. The proposed research will explore one facet of the European Union engagement in police reform, namely by evaluating how effective the ESDP police missions considered are when they are practically implemented. The empirical research will focus on ongoing ESDP police missions carried out in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Palestinian territories. The project is financially supported by the Cusanuswerk (funding institution of the Catholic Church). Dissertation Isabelle Maras Elite change in Bosnia and Herzegovina in transition The project is an externally funded doctoral dissertation. Tendencies, challenges and problems of the elite change in Bosnia-Hercegovina, caused by a socio-political transition, are examined. Dissertation Naida Mehmedbegovic Conflict prevention and crisis management of the European Union – European Interfaces of Development and Security Conflict prevention and crisis management, in their right of existence and goal formulation, form the core of European foreign and security policy. The various instruments available within foreign, security and defence policy, but also foreign trade and development, are to be coordinated in a more coherent way. The European multi-level system is a special challenge for the imperative of an integrated security policy, formulated in theory and demanded by practical concerns. At the same time, the particularities of structure and identity of the European system allot the EU a significant and policy-making role of coordination. This project critically examines the demand for a coherent European approach, identifies limits and prerequisites for common, coordinated European action and works out concrete policy recommendations to strengthen this policy area. Dissertation Isabelle Tannous |